The Institute of International Education (IIE) has released its annual Open Doors report, offering an important snapshot of international student enrollment in the United States. Understanding this data requires looking at the broader trajectory of international student enrollment across the country. While the report provides valuable historical insights, it captures last academic year’s outcomes, not the dynamics shaping the current recruitment cycle.
To fully understand where international education is headed, institutions need to contextualize the new figures alongside real-time indicators, visa trends, and on-the-ground reporting from universities. When viewed holistically, a clearer picture emerges: the headline growth in total enrollment masks ongoing declines in new international students and signals deeper shifts in the overall health of the US international education pipeline.
Shorelight has been tracking these dynamics closely through real-time university reporting and our data dashboard, which integrates global I-20 issuance patterns, student demand signals, and enrollment outcomes across our partner institutions. Our analysis predicted a meaningful drop in new international students this fall—an estimate that has now been validated by IIE’s newly released Fall Snapshot Survey.
Below, we break down the new data, why it matters, and how Shorelight’s early predictions help clarify the road ahead.
Historical Data vs. Current-Year Reality
The main Open Doors report shows a 5% increase in total international students in the US during the last academic year. At first glance, this seems like positive momentum. But this growth is driven largely by a 21% increase in Optional Practical Training (OPT), not by new enrollments. When you remove OPT from the analysis, last year’s growth would have been flat (0%), and several major sending countries, including India and China, would have shown overall enrollment declines. OPT, by definition, reflects students who have already completed their academic programs in the US and are staying to work, not students newly entering the system. Total enrollment numbers are backward-looking and heavily influenced by post-graduation work authorization. They do not reflect the health of the current international recruitment pipeline. To understand the real state of the market, we need to look at new international student trends, and that is where the data tells a different story.
New International Student Enrollments Are in a Multi-Year Decline
The new Open Doors report shows that new international student enrollment fell by 7% during the last academic year, with a steep 15% decline in new graduate enrollments. This year, that downward trend has accelerated. IIE’s Fall Snapshot Survey, representing early, real-time reporting from US institutions, finds:
-17% decline in new international students this fall
Overall international student numbers down -1%
Graduate enrollment down -12%
Undergraduate enrollment up modestly at +2%
OPT enrollment up +14%
These findings closely align with what Shorelight predicted earlier this year: roughly a 20% drop in new enrollments and an associated loss of more than $1 billion to US universities and communities. NAFSA’s updated estimates now fall into a similar range, reinforcing that the real trendline lies in new student numbers, not overall totals.
Why Shorelight’s Predictions Were Accurate
Shorelight’s dashboard and forecasting are powered by our database of historical trends, coupled with real-time insights from our partner universities, where we built an approach that was scaled nationwide. Throughout the past year, institutions reported tightening visa patterns, increased student hesitancy, and heightened concerns about US political uncertainty. These early signals enabled our team to identify the likely downturn months before official numbers were available. The IIE report shares this information on a mass scale, amplifying these trends to audiences who may not track this information as closely and solidifying the overarching impacts that international student flows show on the country at large.
Our projection of a ~20% decline demonstrates the value of real-time, institution-driven data. It also highlights how quickly student behavior responds to global and domestic conditions, including visa backlogs, restrictive policies, and shifting perceptions of the US as a reliable destination for international education.
Notably, the data also suggests that students who were already in the US chose to stay rather than risk traveling or reentering during a period of uncertainty. Meanwhile, new students abroad faced new and uncertain challenges from the US, accelerating the decline in first-time enrollments.
Why These Trends Matter for the Future
Declines in new international students today have long-term implications. Because these students become future graduates, a two-year decline now means:
Fewer international students in upper-division courses in the years ahead
Fewer international graduates entering the US workforce
Lower future OPT participation
Reduced campus revenue and weakened international diversity
In short, the ripple effects of declining new-student enrollment will shape institutions, communities, and the US talent pipeline for years to come.
What Comes Next
Shorelight will continue analyzing new data as it becomes available, integrating insights from our partners worldwide. Our goal is to provide the clearest, most accurate picture of international student demand, helping universities plan strategically in a rapidly changing environment.
The takeaway from this year’s Open Doors release is clear: historical data is important, but current-year signals tell the real story, and that story points to a continuing decline in new international students. Understanding and responding to this trend will be essential to maintaining the competitiveness of US higher education in the years ahead.
